How Do You Say Are You Guys Playing Again in Russian

Ksenia Svetlova was born in Moscow, immigrated to Israel at historic period 14 with her mother, studied for her BA and MA at the Hebrew Academy, and became a journalist then a member of Knesset (with the Zionist Union party).

She is at present a director of the Israel and the Middle East plan at the Mitvim Institute for Regional Strange Policies. At Reichman Academy, she led a project at the Plant for Policy and Strategy that focused on Russia in the Middle East. Since the first of Russian invasion of Ukraine, she has become a prominent commentator in Hebrew media on the progress of the war.

The Times of State of israel interviewed her to become her sense of President Vladimir Putin'southward thinking, the West's response, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's mediation efforts and other fundamental bug relating to the state of war.

The Times of Israel: Before we start, only tell us a trivial about your groundwork, the climate in which you grew upward in Russia, and the source of your expertise.

Ksenia Svetlova: Well, I was built-in in Moscow, and we made aliya when I was 14 in 1991. Growing up there equally a teenager, I soaked in a lot of what was going on. Our family unit was very news-oriented. I decided that I wanted to become a journalist when I was about 10, and that was definitely a decision inspired past all the changes unfolding in Russia at the time.

Guys not much older than myself, possibly in their early 20s, were our heroes, the heroes of perestroika. They were digging in the athenaeum and revealing things we'd never known well-nigh the country'due south past. And suddenly it was okay to talk and write virtually this. It was then interesting and exciting.

Women walk in front end of a McDonald's eatery in central Moscow on March 9, 2022 (Photo by AFP)

Now, when I saw that McDonald's is closing down in Russia — of class it was timely and reasonable, and we knew that it would happen, but my center was pinched: We went to the offset McDonald's with my mom in 1990. Information technology was the symbol of much more than just industrial nutrient. Information technology was a symbol of dissimilar times — that the USSR would exist more than open, more connected to the Due west, and that the futurity would be unlike. It was the promise of a dissimilar future. And that era, of class, is long gone.

Now I've become immersed in all of this over again, at a much later on fourth dimension in my life. After we immigrated, my life hither (in academia and journalism) was not related to Russia. I focused on the Centre East — something that was not intertwined with Russia at that point. But every bit Russia became involved in Syrian arab republic, and after my stint in the Knesset, I led a project at Reichman University that focused on Russia in the Middle East. And I began to read and research more and more, and fill in the parts of the puzzle from the intervening years.

With everything taking identify now, I think, well, yep, I go why it happened — why the large promise of dissimilar times and liberal values and democracy in Russia came to this very lamentable end.

Journalist and political analyst Ksenia Svetlova, formerly an MK from the Zionist Spousal relationship political party. (Miriam Alster/Flash90)

And what were the missing parts of the puzzle?

Russian federation was a mess in the 90s. I didn't alive there, but my father still lived there. It was the Wild West in its very negative sense. And then this guy who nobody knew came to power, but he didn't get there solitary. He was pushed past a layer of other people, who wanted a place in the future Russia, a say in how it would develop, and to control it and its financial resources. And this guy, of course, was Vladimir Putin.

When Putin talks about the early 90s, after his service in the KGB, he says he was a taxi driver. Nobody knows if it's true, but it is a kind of code: He was displaced. He did not empathise what was going on. Suddenly neither Putin, nor the organization to which he belonged, ruled the country

By the end of the 90s, it was a struggle between the oligarchs — the men who are all sanctioned now, and some of whom fled Russia a long time ago — and the KGB. The KGB had changed its name, but it hadn't disappeared. Information technology was determined to regain its influence.

When Putin talks almost the early 90s, after his service in the KGB, he says he was a taxi driver. Nobody knows if information technology's truthful, but it is a kind of code: He was displaced. He did not sympathise what was going on. All of a sudden neither Putin, nor the organization to which he belonged, ruled the country. He and other KGB men witnessed the rise of the oligarchs, who they believed were now leading the land together with, and peradventure fifty-fifty instead of, weak and fragile president Boris Yeltsin.

Putin and the KGB prevailed in that struggle; the oligarchs were subdued and those who didn't succumb went into exile or were jailed, like Michael
Khodorkovsky. That's what happened to Russia.

There have been different eras in Putin'south reign, but in that location were signs of the authoritarianism from the beginning. And of course, the style of KGB people like him is very different: Everything they say, you take to exist very careful. They are trained to misinform, to create a smokescreen.

And from that point on, Russia was no longer a immature commonwealth, or a place where at that place could be democratic evolution or movement.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and quondam President Boris Yeltsin sentry Kremlin guards marching in Moscow'south Kremlin, Russia, May 7, 2000. (AP Photograph/Alexander Zenlianichenko, file)

He strangled the costless press from the start. Before Putin, it was heavily influenced by the oligarchs, was owned by the oligarchs. Yet I remember that in the early 2000s, it was still possible to criticize the authorities, even the armed services and the intelligence people. Soon, this criticism became impossible. Many newspapers closed and in 2001 the contained Goggle box station NTV was violently taken over. This was still the beginning of the 2000s, and Putin was still talking about himself every bit a democrat. He was saying: I'g a democrat, it'southward but a different style of democracy.

When yous rule in an authoritarian country, you have this kind of agreement with your people, which is what Putin had in the beginning: You promise them stability and economic development, and in return you ask them to surrender their civil rights, their political rights sometimes, and so on. This arrangement was more or less working while Russia was developing and its economy was growing. But with the invasion of Crimea in 2014 and the looting of Crimea, it ended. Subsequently that, the authoritarian leader could no longer rely on the willingness of his people to cooperate.

He needed more than power. And every time you get more power, you want all the same more. And then yous practice things like invade Ukraine, to project power — not only to concretely implement your policy, but besides to signal to your own population: See, this is what I can practice. You didn't believe I could practise it, merely I can. And I tin can do it to y'all also if yous do not deport. And so that'southward what's happening now, I think.

Could the West, the The states especially, have prevented the invasion?

I did not believe Putin would invade until he made his alternative history speech on February 21, where he explained the roots of his beliefs and his ideology and what he thought about Ukraine — that information technology'south a nonexistent country — talked about the grandeur of Russian federation, that information technology should be basically reinstalled in its ancient borders.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, speaks at a Security Council meeting in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, Feb. 21, 2022. (Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Later this oral communication, I understood that the invasion was a washed deal, and in that location was no way to foreclose it. And the now-published intelligence indicates that he had already decided to take these steps as early as six months agone. If that was the case, I don't think the The states could accept done annihilation to stop it.

And what happens now?

This is the big mystery because the goals of this war — which is described in Russia as the Special Military Functioning — are non concrete.

Yous accept this wide goal of "denazification" and it can embrace many different scenarios. Russia can demand that [Ukraine's President Volodymyr] Zelensky stride downwardly, because it says his regime includes neo-Nazi elements. Merely information technology could besides be satisfied with dissolving i of the Ukrainian nationalist battalions, such as Azov for case, that indeed includes the radical right and neo-Nazis.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrive for a working session at the Elysee Palace, on December 9, 2019, in Paris. (Ian Langsdon/Pool via AP)

It depends on what kind of a victory flick, what prototype, they need to produce for their people.

They've merely just started to involve the Russian people in this campaign. Until the terminal day or ii, for twelve days, they did almost nothing to involve ordinary citizens except for broadcasting propaganda on television. Now they've started to do these car rallies, with the letter Z symbol, and they're talking almost having this special concert dedicated to the armed forces. They acted very differently during the 2014 invasion in Crimea. Then, they were very decorated engaging the people, explaining to them why is it important, what the goal was. Not this time. Information technology's very bizarre. It seems that although the performance was planned, nothing effectually information technology was planned.

Their PR has worked internationally in the past — including with the looting of Crimea. Today, when you are talking about Crimea, everybody says, Okay, we understand that of course it's Russian, the population is Russian, and so in that location is no problem. According to the few details I've heard of this plan Bennett reportedly brought to Zelensky, it speaks mostly about recognizing Crimea, recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk as separate entities, about [Ukraine'due south] neutral condition and the irresolute of the Ukrainian constitution [to delete the commitment to joining NATO].

After all of this humiliation in Ukraine, which he wasn't able to take over in one, ii or three days, and is however an ongoing act, Putin needs a much more than significant victory prototype to present to his ain people. Otherwise, he will be perceived equally weak. And that was definitely not the thought behind this operation

Putin could have gotten most of information technology without the invasion. He didn't need to invade and jeopardize his country'southward economic system to get this. Ukraine was not on the fast track to NATO. And this was stated more than once by [France's President] Macron, past [Germany'south Chancellor] Scholz, past everybody. If he'd demanded just that, he could have gotten information technology hands and been victorious without firing a shot.

Merely now afterward all of this humiliation in Ukraine, which he wasn't able to take over in i, two or three days, and is still an ongoing deed, he needs a much more meaning victory epitome to present to his own people. Otherwise, he will be perceived as weak. And that was definitely not the idea behind this operation.

Ukrainians cantankerous an improvised path under a destroyed bridge while fleeing Irpin, in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday, March 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana)

I'm afraid that he will go to the end, which means bombing Kyiv — not necessarily acquisition Kyiv, but bombing it, forcing its submission, forcing the Zelensky authorities to abscond to Poland or elsewhere. This is a possible scenario. Of course, miracles can happen, and we don't know what kind of deal can be done — hole-and-corner deals that could include another obligations in some other parts of the globe. I accept no cognition of this.

But information technology feels as though the Russians are playing [disingenuously] with all of these suggestions [such as the ane ferried past Bennett], in society to say, later, Listen: Nosotros wanted peace. We offered a peace bargain. They didn't hold to it.

And that is what Bennett is basically saying. This is what was published [on Tuesday evening] in Ynet and Maariv, quoting a senior source in the Prime Minister's Office — that this kind of deal, the skillful deal that is being offered right now, will non be on the table tomorrow.

Israel believes that information technology's a good deal? I can explain to you very easily why it'due south not a expert deal. Because recognizing the separate countries of Donetsk and Luhansk, which will exist stuffed with Russian weapons, as they are today, with Russian army personnel, is a recipe for disaster. These areas volition be expanded to the borders of 2014 — much wider borders than before the war. Cities similar Mariupol volition be conquered and part of this quasi-state. In that location will still exist a Russian occupation of parts of Ukraine. There will be no reparations. There will exist no security guarantees to Ukraine. None of that is in the reported deal.

That'southward why it seems to me that the negotiations, at some point, will probable fail. Meantime, the fighting continues. People are dying. This all serves the Russian cause right at present.

Does Putin truly believe that Ukraine needs to be denazified?

Only Putin knows what he believes.

Many of the Ukrainian journalists and some of the Russian journalists who knew Putin relatively well at some point, and fled Putin's Russia 15, 10 and five years agone, told me [earlier this invasion] they were very much afraid that he'due south being misinformed, that his perception of reality does not match at all what is happening on the basis.

And perhaps this frustration that Macron spoke about, and other leaders who were in touch with him — though not Bennett — derives from that: that Putin thinks Ukraine has this dangerous government filled with Nazis, and that the Ukrainian people actually hate information technology, and that if Russian federation would only flex its muscles, then the Ukrainian authorities will autumn immediately and the Ukrainian army will not fight. Only you encounter what's going on in real life.

Why isn't he using more forcefulness, killing more people, doing fifty-fifty more than terrible things, more quickly?

Because Ukraine is not Syria for him. Syria is remote. Russian people practise non take families in Syria. Only they do have families in Ukraine.

At the end of the day, even if he is able to destroy and conquer Ukraine, he will have to govern this place. He can simply bomb and leave, of course, but then what would have been the point?

He is even so a trivial bit cautious about using the full ability of his army, because he knows that the consequences volition be much graver. And they're already very grave, with Russia's economic system, the energy sector, and so on. But they can be even worse than that.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and Syrian President Bashar Assad light candles while visiting a cathedral for Christmas, in Damascus, Syria, January 7, 2020. (Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Besides, if Kyiv is merely flattened, merely like Syria's Homs or Hama, it might prompt then much uproar in the W that eventually even the nearly cautious of the [Western] politicians volition take to say, We accept to step in because this is something that nosotros cannot accept. You have this unbelievable manslaughter that is acquired by one person, and the next land could be Estonia or Poland or any other country. And you accept to draw the line somewhere.

For now, despite everything that is going on, information technology hasn't fabricated the West say, well, Ukraine is the red line considering this is a country that wanted to exist part of united states of america, it wanted to be part of the Due west.

Biden said that they volition defend every inch of NATO territory, merely perhaps it will be too late already [if Putin expands his warmongering] — because the Estonian Army or the Latvian Army, they are not as strong every bit the Ukrainian Army. They volition not be able to hold on for days or for weeks

By the mode, at that place were also security guarantees, in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in return for its territorial integrity. If this paper is worth nothing, maybe the guarantees to the Baltics are besides worth cypher.

US President Biden said that they volition defend every inch of NATO territory, but perhaps information technology volition exist too belatedly already [if Putin expands his warmongering] — because the Estonian army or the Latvian army, they are non as strong as the Ukrainian army. They will not be able to hold on for days or for weeks.

Usa President Joe Biden announces a ban on Russian oil imports, toughening the cost on Russia's economy in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, March 8, 2022. (Andrew Harnik/AP)

And recollect, appetite comes with eating: Putin is not interested in all-out state of war with the collective West, because indeed it can deteriorate very chop-chop to something that none of us imagined a few months ago, which is a nuclear war. He's seeking to subdue the Ukrainians, and to produce this image of powerful Russia that stands for what is right against the Nazis, like it did from 1941 to 1945. And right now, it'southward non happening.

I had a difficult time believing that this kind of war was possible, because I thought that it would pb precisely to this issue: an unclear motion picture in Ukraine. I thought he might progress much faster, but I was sure that the Ukrainian spirit, the partisans and this enrollment to the national brigades, would be massive, because I know a little bit about what people think there about Russian federation, nearly Putin, and they were eager to fight. They rebuilt their regular army. The nation is much more than united today than it used to be in 2014.

And the other anticipated consequence was the devastation of the Russian economy. I wrote in Nov that if Putin fifty-fifty thinks [of an invasion], and then the Nord Stream 2 [gas pipeline project] would be canceled, because already back then there were question marks about whether the Germans would operate it eventually, and that if there will be more threats to Ukrainian territorial integrity, then it would be a perfect reason to cancel this projection [equally happened on Feb 22].

I was sure that after everything that Putin's Russian federation did in the last few years — meddling in American elections, meddling in French elections, cyber wars, eliminating opposition politicians — the sanctions [on Russia for invading Ukraine] would be very harsh, and it turns out they are fifty-fifty harsher than I'd imagined.

If he had gone only to the Dombas area and said, I put my forces in that location today to protect the Russian people, and I'thousand taking more land in order to connect between Dombas and Crimea, for instance, he would have gotten some sanctions, only not as hard and encompassing equally now.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett arrives in Germany for a meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, March 5, 2022 (PMO)

Finally, is Bennett making a error in seeking to mediate this conflict, and causing damage to State of israel?

There is potential for damage, aye, because for now, at least, everything that comes from the Prime Minister'southward Office is very supportive of Putin's formula for compromise. That's a trouble.

First of all, you lot have to exist impartial.

And second of all, Israel is walking on thin water ice. It still tries non to anger the Russians, merely at the same time to indicate to the West that it's still part of the collective West. From the position that Israel is taking, it's actually unclear where we are.

Expect at Turkey, which also offered to mediate. Look at what Erdogan is doing: He airtight the Dardanelles and Bosphorus to Russian ships. Nobody thought that was remotely possible. He sells advanced weapons, his Bayraktor drones, to the Ukrainian army. He says, It's not me, it'due south the defence firms. It's him. We all know that these firms need permission from him. But at the same time, he says, Yes, I'k willing to mediate.

He has this contained line. He doesn't join the sanctions, but he does things he believes are correct for his country. His line is much more confident and contained. Bennett's [approach, by contrast] is problematic.

Now there's this mediation, which I recollect has a very small likelihood of success, and has more potential to practice impairment — in the eyes of the Ukrainians, in the optics of our Western partners, and the Americans likewise. That's why Lapid sped to talk to Blinken in Latvia, to explain to him that we are still with the US and nosotros are nevertheless coordinated

State of israel hasn't joined the sanctions. Israel doesn't let big numbers of refugees come hither. Information technology has basically legalized those xx,000 who are already here and added another 5,000, which is nothing. And at present in that location'due south this mediation, which I think has a very small likelihood of success, and has more potential to exercise impairment — in the eyes of the Ukrainians, in the eyes of our Western partners, and the Americans as well. That's why Lapid sped to talk to Blinken in Latvia, to explain to him that nosotros are still with the U.s.a. and nosotros are still coordinated.

Macron also tried his luck a few times [without success]. I recall he has much more leverage than Bennett over Putin.

Nosotros have no leverage over Putin.

We have no leverage over Putin whatsoever. It'southward the other style around. Nosotros are dependent — in the north, specifically. So I cannot see that Bennett can put something on the table that will brand Putin go and accept some kind of compromise that volition be besides acceptable to the Ukrainians.

And I think the Ukrainians are fix for compromise. They have this NATO clause in their constitution, but they can alter it. Zelensky can probably do that now, because he has earned the right to determine on this — earned it by his behavior, by his leadership. But recognizing these two enclaves, which is basically allowing Russia to continue to meddle in Ukrainian affairs on a daily basis, seems very problematic.

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Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/what-does-putin-think-hes-doing-an-experts-primer-on-why-he-invaded-whats-next/